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Data report · Bond yields

Government bond yields: what the curves say

Borrowing costs for governments have risen in Europe and the United States. This report shows how the yield curves have shifted, how steep they are, when they were last inverted and how far apart the two markets are, from ECB and US Treasury data.

Edition of 11 October 2026 · data up to 8 Oct 2026 · General Assets Research Group

3.52%Euro AAA 10-year
5.22%US Treasury 10-year
+0.49 ppEuro 10y − 2y
+1.70 ppUS minus euro, 10-year

Key findings

  1. 01

    The euro-area AAA 10-year yield was 3.52% on 8 Oct 2026, +0.75 pp on a year earlier; the US 10-year Treasury yield was 5.22%, +1.09 pp.

  2. 02

    Both curves moved up across maturities over the year: in the euro area the 3-month rate +0.61 pp and the 30-year +0.57 pp; in the United States +0.21 pp and +0.97 pp.

  3. 03

    The euro-area curve slopes upwards, the normal shape: the 10-year yield is +0.49 pp above the 2-year (a year ago: +0.78 pp). The US curve slopes upwards, the normal shape, at +0.47 pp (a year ago: +0.53 pp).

  4. 04

    In the past five years the US curve was inverted in 113 weeks, last in the week of 23 Aug 2024; the euro-area curve in 92 weeks, last in the week of 23 Aug 2024.

  5. 05

    US 10-year yields are 1.70 percentage points above euro-area AAA yields. Over five years the euro-area 10-year ranged from −0.36% (17 Dec 2021) to 3.61% (25 Sep 2026); the US from 1.35% to 5.28%.

The curves today and a year ago

Yield by maturity, from three months to thirty years. The dashed lines show the same curves a year earlier.

Euro area, AAA government bonds

8 Oct 2026 and 10 Oct 2025

ECB yield curve, spot rates.

US Treasuries

8 Oct 2026 and 10 Oct 2025

Constant-maturity yields, FRED.
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