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Data report · Central banks

Four central banks, four directions

The central banks that matter most to European investors no longer move together. This report sets out where each stands, every rate decision since 2022, what their rates are worth after inflation and when each decides next, from the banks' own data.

Edition of 10 October 2026 · data up to 10 Oct 2026 · General Assets Research Group

2.50%European Central Bank
3.75–4.00%Federal Reserve
3.75%Bank of England
0.00%Swiss National Bank

Key findings

  1. 01

    Policy rates today: European Central Bank 2.50%; Federal Reserve 3.75–4.00%; Bank of England 3.75%; Swiss National Bank 0.00%.

  2. 02

    Over the past twelve months: the ECB 2 rises (net +0.50 pp); the Fed 1 rise, 2 cuts (net −0.25 pp); the BoE 1 cut (net −0.25 pp); the SNB no change.

  3. 03

    After inflation, the ECB's deposit rate is −1.30 pp (September 2026: 2.50% minus 3.8% inflation); the Fed's mid-point rate is +0.23 pp after US CPI inflation (August 2026). A negative real rate means money in the deposit facility loses purchasing power.

  4. 04

    The gap between US and euro-area policy rates (Fed mid-point minus ECB deposit rate) is 1.38 percentage points; it was 1.88 a year ago.

  5. 05

    Since 2022 the central banks have changed rates 68 times between them; the highest levels of this cycle were ECB 4.00% (20 Sep 2023), Fed 5.50% upper bound, Bank of England 5.25%, SNB 1.75%.

Four central banks

Where each stands, what it did last and when it decides next.

European Central Bank

2.50%

deposit facility rate

  • Last move+0.25 pp16 Sep 2026
  • 12-month change+0.50 pp2 moves
  • Next decision29 Oct 202614:15 CET decision, 14:45 press conference

Mandate. Price stability, defined since the 2021 strategy review as 2% inflation over the medium term, symmetric: deviations above and below are equally undesirable.

Federal Reserve

3.75–4.00%

federal funds target range

  • Last move+0.25 pp17 Sep 2026
  • 12-month change−0.25 pp3 moves
  • Next decision28 Oct 202614:00 ET

Mandate. A dual mandate from Congress: maximum employment and stable prices. The Federal Open Market Committee aims at 2% inflation measured by the PCE price index (not the CPI).

Bank of England

3.75%

Bank Rate

  • Last move−0.25 pp18 Dec 2025
  • 12-month change−0.25 pp1 move
  • Next decision5 Nov 202612:00 GMT

Mandate. Price stability: an inflation target of 2% on the CPI, set by the UK government. The Monetary Policy Committee also supports the government's economic objectives.

Swiss National Bank

0.00%

SNB policy rate

  • Last move−0.25 pp20 Jun 2025
  • 12-month change±0.00 pp0 moves
  • Next decision10 Dec 202609:30 CET

Mandate. Price stability, which the SNB equates with CPI inflation of less than 2% a year; it may also act on the franc's exchange rate.

Every decision since 2022

Each dot is a change in the policy rate; gold = rise, blue = cut. The size of the dot shows the size of the move.

Sources: ECB, FRED, Bank of England, SNB. Fed: upper bound of the target range.

Rates and real rates

Policy rates since 2019

Per cent

Step chart: rates change only at decisions.

Real policy rates

Policy rate minus annual inflation, percentage points

ECB deposit rate minus euro-area HICP; Fed mid-point minus US CPI. Computed by us.

The transatlantic gap

Fed mid-point minus ECB deposit rate, percentage points

Computed by us at each month end.
Research team notes

What we watch next

  • 28 October 2026 — FOMC meeting, decision.
  • 29 October 2026 — ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting.
  • 5 November 2026 — Bank of England, Bank Rate decision with Monetary Policy Report.
  • 9 December 2026 — FOMC meeting, decision with Summary of Economic Projections.
  • 10 December 2026 — SNB monetary policy assessment.
  • Whether the ECB's and the Fed's statements still describe the risks to inflation as tilted to the upside; both say their decisions depend on incoming data, meeting by meeting.
  • The real-rate line: it shows whether policy is restrictive (positive) or still accommodative (negative) after inflation, by the simplest measure.
  • Questions for investors: how much of your cash earns the policy rate, and what does it earn after inflation? Which of your holdings are most sensitive to further rate changes (long-dated bonds, property, growth companies)?

These are the dates and figures our research team follows, not predictions of what they will show and not advice on what to do. General Assets Research Group gives no investment recommendations.

Method

Official policy rates as published: ECB deposit facility rate, Federal Reserve target range for the federal funds rate (FRED series DFEDTARU/DFEDTARL), Bank of England Bank Rate, SNB policy rate (introduced 13 June 2019). Twelve-month changes compare today with the rate in force a year ago. Real rates subtract the latest annual inflation rate of each month and are a simple, backward-looking measure; central banks themselves use expected inflation. Decision dates ahead from the official calendars.

Sources

  1. ECB Data Portal, key ECB interest rates — data.ecb.europa.eu
  2. FRED, series DFEDTARU and DFEDTARL — fred.stlouisfed.org
  3. Bank of England, Bank Rate (IUDBEDR) — bankofengland.co.uk
  4. Swiss National Bank, policy rate — data.snb.ch
  5. Central-bank calendars: ECB, Fed, BoE, SNB

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