Government bond yields: what the curves say
Borrowing costs for governments have risen in Europe and the United States. This report shows how the yield curves have shifted, how steep they are, when they were last inverted and how far apart the two markets are, from ECB and US Treasury data.
Edition of 10 October 2026 · data up to 8 Oct 2026 · General Assets Research Group
Key findings
- 01
The euro-area AAA 10-year yield was 3.52% on 8 Oct 2026, +0.75 pp on a year earlier; the US 10-year Treasury yield was 5.22%, +1.09 pp.
- 02
Both curves moved up across maturities over the year: in the euro area the 3-month rate +0.61 pp and the 30-year +0.57 pp; in the United States +0.21 pp and +0.97 pp.
- 03
The euro-area curve slopes upwards, the normal shape: the 10-year yield is +0.49 pp above the 2-year (a year ago: +0.78 pp). The US curve slopes upwards, the normal shape, at +0.47 pp (a year ago: +0.53 pp).
- 04
In the past five years the US curve was inverted in 113 weeks, last in the week of 23 Aug 2024; the euro-area curve in 92 weeks, last in the week of 23 Aug 2024.
- 05
US 10-year yields are 1.70 percentage points above euro-area AAA yields. Over five years the euro-area 10-year ranged from −0.36% (17 Dec 2021) to 3.61% (25 Sep 2026); the US from 1.35% to 5.28%.
The curves today and a year ago
Yield by maturity, from three months to thirty years. The dashed lines show the same curves a year earlier.
Euro area, AAA government bonds
8 Oct 2026 and 10 Oct 2025
US Treasuries
8 Oct 2026 and 10 Oct 2025
Five years of 10-year yields
10-year yields
Weekly, per cent
The transatlantic yield gap
US 10-year minus euro AAA 10-year, percentage points
The slope of the curve
10-year minus 2-year yield. Below zero the curve is inverted; an inversion has preceded several US recessions, though not every inversion was followed by one.
Weekly; computed by us from the ECB and FRED series.
What we watch next
- 28 October 2026 — FOMC meeting, decision.
- 29 October 2026 — ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting.
- 4 November 2026 — Euro area HICP flash estimate, October 2026.
- 5 November 2026 — Bank of England, Bank Rate decision with Monetary Policy Report.
- 10 November 2026 — US Consumer Price Index, October 2026.
- The 2-year yields: they move with what markets expect central banks to do over the next two years, and react first to each inflation figure and decision.
- Whether the curves keep their upward slope; a renewed inversion would mean markets expect rates to fall later.
- Questions for investors: how long is the duration of your bond holdings, and what would a further one-point rise in yields do to their price? Does a fund's income come from higher yields or from taking more credit risk?
These are the dates and figures our research team follows, not predictions of what they will show and not advice on what to do. General Assets Research Group gives no investment recommendations.
Method
Euro area: ECB estimates of the yield curve for AAA-rated euro-area central government bonds (spot rates), which are close to but not identical with German Bund yields. United States: Treasury constant-maturity yields from FRED. Histories are weekly (last observation of each week). Slopes and the yield gap are computed by us.
Sources
- ECB Data Portal, yield curves (YC) — data.ecb.europa.eu
- FRED, series DGS3MO to DGS30 — fred.stlouisfed.org
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